2007 Publication Award
Craig R. Fox and Robert T. Clemen
“Subjective Probability Assessment in Decision Analysis: Partition Dependence and Bias Toward the Ignorance Prior” Management Science, Vol. 51, No. 9, 2005.
The intent of the Publication Award of the Decision Analysis Society is to recognize the best publication in "decision analysis, broadly defined." In principle, this can include
"theoretical work on decision analysis methodology (including behavioral decision making and non-expected utility theory), descriptions of applications, and experimental studies." In fact, one can see from the list of finalists that this year's award committee did recognize excellent work in areas like behavioral decision making, and outstanding applications. However, the committee chose to emphasize contributions to prescriptive decision analysis. Within that, the committee particularly appreciated the fact that the paper by Fox and Clemen also incorporated insights from psychological research, that it incorporated those insights in a manner that led to prescriptive recommendations, and that those prescriptive recommendations were simple enough to be followed by a wide range of practitioners. For those reasons, we felt that the paper by Fox and Clemen would have the greatest impact on the practice of decision analysis of any paper published in 2005.
Finalist
John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov, "The United States and Russia Evaluate Plutonium Disposition Options with Multi-attribute Utility Theory," Interfaces, Vol. 35, No. 1, January-February 2005, pp. 88-101
Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson, "Influence Diagrams," Decision Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 3
Joseph Johnson and Jerome Busemeyer, "A Dynamic, stochastic, computational model of preference reversal phenomena," Psychological Review, Vol. 112, No. 4, 2005, pp. 841-861
Bob Winkler and Ilia Tsetlin, "Risky Choices and Correlated Background Risk," Management Science, Vol. 51, No. 9, September 2005, pp. 1336-1345
Committee Members
Vicki Bier (chair)
Eric Bickel
Philippe Delquie
Don Kleinmuntz