New Orleans
Decision Analysis Cluster
Schedule of sessions sponsored by the Section on Decision Analysis at the New Orleans INFORMS Meeting, October 29-November 1, 1995Cluster Chair: Charles Harvey

Session SC17, Sunday, Oct. 29, 1:00-2:20pm, Chaired by Ross Shachter: "Influence Diagrams"

  • Jack Breese: "Influence Diagram Tools at Microsoft"
  • Kazuo J. Ezawa: "Value of Evidence on Influence Diagrams"
  • Marvin Mandelbaum and Ross D. Shachter: "Representing Decision Flexibility"
  • Ross D. Shachter and David E. Heckerman: "The Effects of Decisions:

Session SD17, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2:40-4:00pm, Chaired by Robert Bordley: "Conceptual Issues in Decision Analysis"

  • Charles M. Harvey: "Value Functions for Continuous-Time Consequences"
  • Ehsan Soofi, Thomas Mazzuchi, and Refik Soyer: "Bayesian Analysis of Information for Probability Modeling"
  • Martin Weber: "Behavioral Influences on Weight Judgments in Multiattribute Decision Making"
  • Robert F. Bordley: "Probability Distortions in Quantum Mechanics"

Session SE17, Sunday, Oct. 29, 4:10pm-5:30pm, Chaired by James Dyer: "Risk and Value"

  • Elke U. Weber: "Perceived Risk and Perceived Risk Attitudes: Individual, Cultural, and Domain Differences"
  • James S. Dyer and Jianmin Jia: "Advances in Risk-Value Studies"
  • Rakesh Sarin and Martin Weber: "Risk-Value Models"

Session MA17, Monday, Oct. 30, 8:00-9:20am, Chaired by Peter Fishburn, "New Directions in Preference and Probability"

  • R. Duncan Luce: "Jointly Receiving Several Risky Alternatives"
  • Gordon B. Hazen: "Indifference Need Not Determine One's Risk Attitude Parameter"
  • Robert F. Nau: "The Volatility of Beliefs"
  • Irving H. LaValle and Peter C. Fishburn: "On the Varieties of Matrix Probabilities in Nonlinear Decision Theory

Session MB17, Monday, Oct. 30, 10:45am-12:05pm, Chaired by John Rohrbaugh: "Building Models with Groups: What Do We Gain? What Do We Lose?"

  • Dennis Buede
  • Ward Edwards
  • George Richardson

Session MC17, Monday, Oct. 30, 2:40-4:00pm, Chaired by Ronald Howard: "Getting the Right Things Done: Strategic Transformation"

  • Carl S. Spetzler and Philip C. Lachambre: "Achieving Excellence in Strategic Management"

Session MD17, Monday, Oct. 30, 4:15-5:35pm, Chaired by Dennis Buede: "Structuring Decision Problems"

  • Ronald A. Howard: "Structuring Decision Problems Using Decision Diagrams"
  • David Matheson: "Structure the Decision to Obtain Commitment"
  • Daniel T. Maxwell, Ola M. Berry, and Dennis M. Buede: "Using Value Focused Influence Diagrams"
  • Daniel Owen: "Structuring Decision Problems from the Customer's Point of View"

Session TA17, Tuesday, Oct. 31, 8:00-9:20am, Chaired by James Smith: "Decision Analysis and Finance"

  • Adam Berger, Dawei Bai, and John Mulvey: "Temporal Preferences for Long-term Financial Planning"
  • I Gusti Rai Y. Soekido: "Asset and Liability Planning for Commercial Banks"
  • James E. Smith and Kevin F. McCardle: "Valuing Oil Properties: Integrating Option Pricing and Decision Analysis Approaches"

Session TB17, Tuesday, Oct. 31, 10:45am-12:05pm, Chaired by Ward Edwards: "Presentation by the Ramsey Award Recipient"

  • James Matheson: "I will present a personal view of the evolution of the decision analysis profession, particularly in the Stanford area, including uses and adaptations of theory, professional practices, and new theories arising from application needs. I will show how the professional role is changing and indicate areas where new methodology would be most welcome."

Session TC17, Tuesday, Oct. 31, 1:30-2:50pm, Chaired by Ward Edwards: "In-House Decision Analysis in Large American Corporations"

  • C. Thomas Spradlin: "A Profile of Industrial Practitioners of Decision Analysis"
  • Francie Kivel: "A Year of Productivity, Pitfalls, and Persistence"
  • Kazuo J. Ezawa: "Some Applications of Decision Analysis at AT&T"
  • J.M. Ausman: "Decision Analysis at Chevron Corporation"
  • Ward Edwards: "Summing Up"

Session TD17, Tuesday, Oct. 31, 3:00-4:20pm, Chaired by L. Robin Keller: "Behavioral Decision Theory: Problem Structures, Boundaries and Focal Points"

  • Jeff Casey: "Cognitive Processes in Constructing a Resistance Point"
  • Elke U. Weber and Britt Kirsner: "Reasons for Rank-Dependent Utility Evaluation"
  • Don N. Kleinmuntz and David Schkade: "Decision Making in Small versus Large Worlds"
  • L. Robin Keller: "Improving Problem Structuring"

Session WA17, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 8:00-9:20am, Chaired by George Wu: "Topics in Behavioral Decision Making"

  • Rachel Croson: "Nonconsequential Thinking in the Provision of Public Goods"
  • Philippe Delquie: Asking the Right Questions to Assess Preferences"
  • Gregory Fischer: "Measuring Preference Tradeoffs"
  • George Wu and Richard Gonzalez: "Probability Weights and Decisions Under Uncertainty"

Session WB17, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 9:35-10:55am, Chaired by David Harless: "Statistical Models for Decisions against Nature: Evidence"

  • David Buschena and David Zilberman: "Real Payoffs, Similarity, and Error in Risky Choice"
  • Nathaniel T. Wilcox: "Complexity and Probabilistic Choice"
  • Mahmoud El-Gamal and David Grether: "Are People Bayesian? Uncovering Behavioral Strategies"

Session WC17, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 11:00am-12:20pm, Chaired by Nathaniel Wilcox: "Statistical Models for Decisions in Games: Evidence"

  • Charles A. Holt: "Experimental Coordination Games: Randomization or Decision Error?"
  • David W. Harless and Colin F. Camerer: "Testing Learning Rules in Experimental Signaling Games"